“一平臺(tái)、雙紐帶”的聯(lián)系機(jī)制將促進(jìn)中拉之間更加務(wù)實(shí)有效的對(duì)話。近年來(lái)，隨著拉共體的創(chuàng)建、南方共同市場(chǎng)的擴(kuò)員，拉美地區(qū)一體化推進(jìn)再度活躍。從長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)看，合作的程度不會(huì)僅停留在協(xié)議表面，而是將逐漸落實(shí)到加強(qiáng)區(qū)域內(nèi)貿(mào)易和投資的實(shí)質(zhì)上來(lái)。鑒于目前WTO多哈回合談判陷入僵局，世界范圍內(nèi)的匯率戰(zhàn)、貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)硝煙再起的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況，中拉之間密切的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作關(guān)系正好從一定程度上彌補(bǔ)了發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家因其經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮所留下的缺口，不僅沒(méi)有使拉美國(guó)家對(duì)未來(lái)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)合作喪失信心，反而更加增強(qiáng)了信心。特別是，中拉論壇的成立（即所謂的“一平臺(tái)”）開(kāi)啟了中拉之間整體深度合作的新進(jìn)程。在這個(gè)平臺(tái)上，中國(guó)與拉美一個(gè)有代表性的地區(qū)組織進(jìn)行整體對(duì)話與溝通，更加有利于從地區(qū)層面進(jìn)行規(guī)劃與布局。此外，作為“雙紐帶”中的一個(gè)紐帶，也就是在雙邊自貿(mào)協(xié)定方面，“中國(guó)與智利”、“中國(guó)與秘魯”和“中國(guó)與哥斯達(dá)黎加”已經(jīng)簽署了自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，在這樣的示范效應(yīng)下，將會(huì)有更多的拉美國(guó)家與中國(guó)結(jié)成密切的雙邊自由貿(mào)易合作伙伴；同時(shí)，作為“雙紐帶”中的另一個(gè)紐帶，中國(guó)與拉美次區(qū)域組織（安第斯共同體、南方共同市場(chǎng)等）之間的合作也將加速推進(jìn)。這種“以點(diǎn)帶面”的方式將為中拉經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系發(fā)展注入新的活力與內(nèi)涵。

總而言之，中拉經(jīng)貿(mào)合作的機(jī)遇遠(yuǎn)大于挑戰(zhàn)，這充分印證了鄧小平在1988年就高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚地預(yù)測(cè)到“21世紀(jì)將是太平洋和拉美的世紀(jì)”是多么的睿智和偉大。我們有充分的理由相信，中拉經(jīng)貿(mào)合作將從21世紀(jì)初的“雙手相握”時(shí)代走向更加緊密的“熱情相擁”時(shí)代。

注釋

1 作者根據(jù)CEIC數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)計(jì)算。

2 作者根據(jù)CEIC數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)計(jì)算。

3 Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean (ECLAC), Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2010-2011: The Region in the Decade of the Emerging Economies, United Nations, 2012, p.17.

4 Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean (ECLAC), Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2013 (briefing paper), United Nations, 2014, p.19.

5 作者根據(jù)WTO網(wǎng)站所提供的數(shù)據(jù)整理計(jì)算，http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_e.htm。

6 Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean (ECLAC), The United States and Latin America and the Caribbean: Highlights of Economics and Trade, United States, 2011, p5.

7 劉世錦主編:《中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)十年展望》，北京：中信出版社，2013年，第22頁(yè)。

8 10 胡必亮主編：《2040年的拉丁美洲》，北京：中國(guó)大百科全書(shū)出版社，2014年，第35頁(yè)。

9 王海林：《拉美需投兩萬(wàn)億搞基建》，《環(huán)球時(shí)報(bào)》，2013年11月6日。

The Century of the Pacific and Latin America

—Opportunity and Challenge of Sino-Latin America Economic and Trade Cooperation

Hu Biliang  Zhang Yong

Abstract: Before the year 2000, economic and trade cooperation between China and Latin America developed very slowly. As Chinese industry becomes more competitive and Chinese economy grows stronger, China has had an increasingly important meaning to Latin America; at the same time, Latin America is also of great significance in sustaining Chinese economic development due to its huge commodity and investment market and rich economic resources. President Xi Jinping visited Latin America for two consecutive years, which helps to advance the bilateral economic and trade cooperation, fully tap the potential of both sides, better use their economic complementarity and transform the mode of economic growth, promote South-South Cooperation, and improve the structure and mechanism of global governance. As long as the two sides continue to jointly eliminate protectionist barriers, try as much as possible to promote balance in investment and trade distribution in different industries and strengthen training professionals on the basis of mutual trust, they will achieve more fruitful results in economic and trade development, industrialization, infrastructure construction and financial cooperation.

Keywords: Sino-Latin America economic and trade cooperation, opportunity, challenge, trend

作者簡(jiǎn)介

胡必亮，北京師范大學(xué)新興市場(chǎng)研究院院長(zhǎng)兼發(fā)展研究院院長(zhǎng)、教授、博導(dǎo)，曾兩次榮獲孫冶方經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)獎(jiǎng)。研究方向?yàn)榘l(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、制度經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)。主要著作有《Informal Institutions and Rural Development in China》等。張勇，中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院拉丁美洲研究所副研究員。